Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll released Tuesday, taking 47.2 percent to Talarico's 46.7 percent in what has become the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle, according to Breitbart.
The margin — less than a single percentage point — falls well inside any poll's margin of error, meaning the race for the seat is effectively tied with early voting set to begin next week and Election Day on November 3.
The survey lands in a crowded field of recent polling that has pointed in different directions. A separate poll released Tuesday from ReconMR and the Siena Polling Institute showed Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 44 percent, down slightly from Talarico's 49-to-43 edge in September. A University of Houston Hobby School survey of 2,750 likely voters in Harris County — the state's most populous — found Talarico ahead there by 22 points, 58 percent to 36 percent, with 2 percent backing Libertarian Ted Brown.
The Harris County numbers do not translate directly to a statewide result. Professor Mark Jones, a co-director of the UH poll, told The Texan that extrapolating the county-level findings statewide would suggest Talarico ahead by one to three points and Gov. Greg Abbott ahead by three to five points in his reelection bid against state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. In 2024, Democrat Collin Allred carried Harris County by 11 points, while Sen. Ted Cruz won statewide by 8.5 — a gap that illustrates how Harris County margins can overstate a Democrat's statewide standing.
The ReconMR/Siena poll, first reported by the El Paso Times, showed region-by-region strengths for each candidate. Talarico led in Austin 72 percent to 21 percent and in San Antonio and South Texas 56 percent to 38 percent, while Paxton held an 18-point advantage in rural Texas. The two were virtually tied in Houston, and Talarico held a narrow lead in Dallas-Fort Worth.
Favorability numbers in that same survey cut both ways. Forty-eight percent of respondents viewed Talarico favorably against 43 percent unfavorable — a dip from his 50-to-39 standing in September. Paxton was viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 55 percent, an improvement from 38-to-55 the prior month.
Independents broke sharply for Talarico in the UH poll, backing him 64 percent to 20 percent over Paxton, with 8 percent supporting Brown and 8 percent undecided. Among Republicans surveyed in Harris County, 85 percent said they would vote for Paxton, 7 percent for Talarico and 3 percent for Brown.
The tightening comes as the race draws national attention and heavy spending. NBC News reported Sunday on what it described as a brutal stretch for Paxton's campaign and on Republican efforts to trip up Talarico that the outlet said have kept backfiring. The same report noted a conspiracy theory about Talarico that raced through the right-wing internet.
Both men carry distinct profiles into the final three weeks. Paxton, the state's attorney general, was endorsed by President Donald Trump. Talarico, a state representative from Austin, is seeking to become the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994, when Gov. Ann Richards lost her reelection bid.
Harris County voters surveyed by UH also registered deep dissatisfaction with local conditions: 72 percent disapproved of the county's historic property tax increase, and majorities said the country, state and county are all headed in the wrong direction.
Early voting begins next week. The Nov. 3 election will decide whether Texas sends a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in more than three decades or keeps the seat in Republican hands.
Our Take
Here's what the legacy media won't tell you plainly: a 47.2-to-46.7 lead in the most expensive Senate race in the country is a tied race, and tied races in Texas have a way of breaking Republican when the ballots are actually counted. The national press spent the weekend pouring over Paxton's rough stretch and amplifying every poll that flatters Talarico. Tuesday's numbers tell a different story — the GOP's hand-picked nominee is still standing, still leading, and the cavalry is already on the field.
But let's be honest with each other, Patriots. A half-point lead three weeks out is not a win. The Harris County numbers are ugly, independents are breaking the wrong way, and 85 percent Republican support in a county poll is not the unity you want heading into the stretch. If you live in Texas, the calendar is the only poll that matters now: early voting starts next week. Volunteer, knock doors, get your neighbors to the ballot box, and make sure the Lone Star State doesn't hand a Senate seat to the Left because we assumed it was safe.
